- ترتیب محصولات: پیش فرض
American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation0 تومان
Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90%) when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8- m scenario). Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%). More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts.
An evaluation of participatory mapping methods to assess urban park benefits0 تومان
Traditional urban park research has used self-reported surveys and activity logs to examine relationships between health benefits, park use, and park features. An alternative approach uses participating mapping methods. This study sought to validate and expand on previous participatory mapping research methods and findings andaddress spatial scaling by applying these methods to a large urban park system. Key challenges for spatial scaling included ambiguity in park classification and achieving representative sampling for larger and spatially-disbursed urban residents. We designed an internet-based public participation GIS (PPGIS) survey and used household and volunteer sampling to identify the type and locations of urban park benefits. Study participants (n = 816) identified locations of physical activities and other urban park benefits (psychological, social, and environmental) which were analyzed by park type. Consistent with previous suburb-scale research, we found significant associations between urban park type and different urban park benefits. Linear parks were significantly associated with higher intensity physical activities; natural parks were associated with environmental benefits; and community parks were associated with benefits from social interaction. Neighborhood parks emerged as significantly associated with psychological benefits. The diversity of park activities and benefits were positively correlated with park size. Distance analysis confirmed that physical benefits of parks were closest toparticipant domicile, while social and environmental benefits were more distant. These results validate previoussuburb-scale findings despite greater variability in park types and sample populations. Future urban park research using participatory mapping would benefit from greater effort to obtain participation from under-represented populations that can induce nonresponse bias, and analyses to determine whether system-wide results can be disaggregated by suburb or neighborhood to address social inequities in urban park benefits.
Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico0 تومان
Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce high-quality coffee. Here, we discuss the history of coffee in Puerto Rico, outline important bioclimatic parameters, and model current and future habitat suitability using statistically downscaled climate data. Model projections suggest that warming trends may surpass important temperature thresholds during thecoming decades. Under high (A2) and mid-low (A1B) emission scenarios for 2011–2040, Puerto Rico is projected to exceed mean annual temperature parameters for growth of Coffea arabica. Warming and drying trendsmay accelerate after 2040 and could result in top producingmunicipalities losing 60– 84% of highly suitable growing conditions by 2070. Under the A2 scenario, Puerto Rico may only retain 24 km2 of highly suitable conditions by 2071–2099. High temperatures and low precipitation levels can result in diminished quality and yields, as well as increased exposure and sensitivity to certain insects and diseases. The climate data and models used are based on best current understanding of climate and emission interactions with results best interpreted as projected climate trends rather than predictions of future weather. Planning, innovation, and adaptation provide promising avenues to address current and future socioecological challenges while building a model of sustainable and resilient coffee production in Puerto Rico and throughout the region.
Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index0 تومان
It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.
Does happiness data say urban parks are worth it?0 تومان
Urban planners emphasize that urban nature plays an important role in providing social and psychological benefits to urban dwellers. Particularly, it provides space not only for the improvement of public health, but also for social interaction and community cohesion. However, less scientific attention has been paid to the effects of urban parks on the subjective well-being of urban dwellers who live in high density cities. In this study, we examine the relationship between individual subjective well-being and urban parks with individual survey data for self-reported happiness in Seoul. We obtain longitudinal Seoul Survey Data (SSD) conducted by the Seoul government between 2005 and 2015, and employ pooled cross-section data analysis with location-specific and time-specific fixed-effects to estimate the effects of urban parks on the subjective well-being of urban dwellers. In addition, we estimate the monetary value of urban parks using the average marginal rate of substitution between urban parks and household income. Our findings show that urban parks are associated with residents’ subjective well-being. Specifically, on average, an individual household has an implicit willingness-to-pay of approximately 129,300 won (approximately 110 U.S. dollar) in monthly household income for a 100 m2 increase in urban parks. High-income residents’ willingness-to-pay is approximately seventeen times more than that of low-income residents. Seniors also have more willingness-to-pay for urban parks.
Drought impacts on phloem transport0 تومان
Drought impacts on phloem transport have attracted attention only recently, despite the well-established, and empirically verified theories on drought impacts on water transport in plants in general. This is because studying phloem transport is challenging. Phloem tissue is relatively small and delicate, and it has often been assumed not to be impacted by drought, or having insignificant impact on plant function or survival compared to the xylem. New evidence, however, suggests that drought responses of the phloem might hold the key for predicting plant survival time during drought or revival capacity after drought. This review summarizes current theories and empirical evidence on how drought might impact phloem transport, and evaluates these findings in relation to plant survival during drought.
Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system0 تومان
Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas missions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939e1942) with Finnish Environment Institute’s Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat.
Environmental pollution and health hazards from distillery wastewater and treatment approaches to combat the environmental threats: A review0 تومان
Distillery industries are the key contributor to the world’s economy, but these are also one of the major sources of environmental pollution due to the discharge of a huge volume of dark colored wastewater. This dark colored wastewater contains very high biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total solids, sulfate, phosphate, phenolics and various toxic metals. Distillery wastewater also contains a mixture of organic and inorganic pollutants such as melanoidins, di-n-octyl phthalate, di-butyl phthalate, benzenepropanoic acid and 2- hydroxysocaproic acid and toxic metals, which are well reported as genotoxic, carcinogenic, mutagenic and endocrine disrupting in nature. In aquatic resources, it causes serious environmental problems by reducing the penetration power of sunlight, photosynthetic activities and dissolved oxygen content. On other hand, in agricultural land, it causes inhibition of seed germination and depletion of vegetation by reducing the soil alkalinity and manganese availability, if discharged without adequate treatment. Thus, this review article provides a comprehensive knowledge on the distillery wastewater pollutants, various techniques used for their analysis as well as its toxicological effects on environments, human and animal health. In addition, various physico-chemicals, biological as well as emerging treatment methods have been also discussed for the protection of environment, human and animal health.
Hazard assessment of hydraulic fracturing chemicals using an indexing method0 تومان
The rapid expansion of unconventional natural gas production has triggered considerable public concerns, particularly regarding environmental and human health (EHH) risks posed by various chemical additives used in hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations. There is a need to assess the potential EHH hazards of additives used in realworld HF operations. In this study, HF additive and fracturing fluid data was acquired, and EHH hazards were assessed using an indexing approach. The indexing system analyzed chemical toxicological data of different ingredients contained within additives and produced an aggregated EHH safety index for each additive, along with an indicator describing the completeness of the chemical toxicological data. The results show that commonly used additives are generally associated with medium-level EHH hazards. In each additive category, ingredients of high EHH concern were identified, and the high hazard designation was primarily attributed to ingredients’ high aquatic toxicity and carcinogenic effects. Among all assessed additive categories, iron control agents were identified as the greatest EHH hazards. Lack of information, such as undisclosed ingredients and chemical toxicological data gaps, has resulted in different levels of assessment uncertainties. In particular, friction reducers show the highest data incompleteness with regards to EHH hazards. This study reveals the potential EHH hazards associated with chemicals used in current HF field operations and can provide decision makers with valuable information to facilitate sustainable and responsible unconventional gas production.
Hydrological Analysis using Satellite Remote Sensing Big Data and CREST Model0 تومان
Hydrological modelling significantly contributes to the understanding of catchment water balance and water resource management and mitigates negative impacts of flooding. Considering the advantages of satellite remote sensing big data and the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) model, this paper investigates the hydrological modelling in the Shehong basin during 2006-2013. The results show that humid Shehong basin has main rainfalls in summer (From May to September). For the monthly average rainfall and streamflow, there is a remarkable increase (+52%) in discharge and a smaller increase (+18%) in rainfall in the second period (2010-2013) relative to the first period (2006-2009). The CREST model was calibrated using China Gauge-Based Daily Precipitation Analysis (CGDPA) for the period of 2006-2009, followed by a favorable performance with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient efficiency (NSCE) of 0.77, correlation coefficient (CC) up to 0.88 and -11% Bias. The model validation shows an error metric with NSCE of 0.74, CC of 0.87 and -11.7% Bias. In terms of water balance modeling results at Shehong basin, the runoff and rainfall estimates from CREST model coincide well with the gauge observations, indicating the model captures the appropriate signature of soil moisture variability. Therefore, the satellite-based precipitation product is feasible in hydrological prediction, and the CREST models the interaction between surface and subsurface water flow process in the Shehong basin.
Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study0 تومان
Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to studythe expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin CentralItaly). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from * 0.025 to * 0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitudenever occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).
Implementing climate change research at universities: Barriers, potential and actions0 تومان
Many universities around the world have been active centres of climate change research. However, there are a number of barriers to climate change research, stemming both from the nature of the research and the structure of institutions. This paper offers an overview of the barriers which hinder the handling of matters related to climate change at institutions of higher education (IHEs), and reports on an empirical study to investigate these barriers using a global survey of higher education institutions. It concludes by proposing some steps which could be followed with a view to making climate change more present and effective in university research and teaching. These include changing approaches to research, outreach and teaching to better support action on climate change.
Managing climate risks on the ranch with limited drought information0 تومان
Ranching involves complex decision-making and risk management in the face of uncertainty about climate conditions. The profitability and sustainability of ranching depend heavily on sufficient and timely rainfall for rangeland forage production. As a result, ranchers may either adopt conservative long-term stocking strategies as a hedge against drought or practice a more dynamic approach in which they vary stocking rates and supplemental feed in response to drought. Yet, some strategies require more information about climate risks than is often available to ranchers. We review the literature to draw out the drought management options as well as the tools and products for drought monitoring and early warning that are available to ranchers. We find that a large gap remains between the information needs of ranchers seeking to adapt dynamically to drought and the information that is available. Moreover, even when actionable information is available, it is unclear whether ranchers are optimally incorporating that information into their risk management decisions. Further research is needed to understand how to package existing information into risk management decision tools in a way that addresses cognitive and operational barriers to support timely decisions that will reduce the impact of droughton profits and the long-term sustainability of rangelands. Due to the multi-faceted nature of climate risk management in ranching, further study of ranching behavior and decisions has the potential to bring new insights into climate risk management and decision and risk theory far beyond the field of ranching and agriculture.
Mapping race and environment: Geography’s entanglements with Aryanism0 تومان
This article examines how theories of Aryanism influenced geographic theories of race and environmental influence. The argument is made that the entanglements between Aryanism and geographic theories of race provide a new site in assessing the history of geographic thought. It begins by illuminating the rise of Aryanism in colonial India. As it moved across time and space, Aryanism became a foundational element in racial science, and informed a number of disciplines, including geography. The majority of the article is devoted to exposing the influence of Aryanism in American geography from the mid nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries. The paper finds that the influential geographers Arnold Guyot, Nathaniel Shaler, Friedrich Ratzel, Ellen Semple, and Ellsworth Huntington were all indebted to Aryanism in the production of their theories of race and the environment.