توضیحات
ABSTRACT
Investigating the effective factors which effect economic growth is important for most economists. Although lots of studies have been done on economic growth in the world, it gets little attentions in Iran. In this article, by estimating GDP growth, we try to investigate the supply side economic growth of Iran. Then we compare the predictive results of Fuzzy-logic and Neural- Fuzzy methods. And also by comparing the predictive results of methods for the average annual growth, it is predicted that (5.92%) in Neural-Fuzzy and (6.46%) in Fuzzy-logic in the related periods that is 2002 – 2006. And by comparing criteria it has been determined that, method Neural-Fuzzy predicts better than Fuzzy-logic method. In other words, forecasting by the method Neural-Fuzzy is recommended.
INTROCUCTION
Eeconomic growth is the most important index among the macroeconomic variables. This variable has been considered as an economical index of government, and its increasing rate shows the welfare condition of the society. This article tries at first to recognize the effective variables which effect economic growth in Iran (Mirnaser, 2008), then it will apply appropriate means for modeling and forecasting the main macroeconomic variables, that is economic growth. In this article, we also try to estimation, on the main and important effective factors in economic growth. This estimation can be led to applying appropriate, suitable and effective decisions. For this estimation, we designed Fuzzy- logic and Neural-Fuzzy to compare the results and the data is based on the information of informative centers such as central bank, planning budgeting organization and statistical centers. On the bases of previous experiences and theories, we can divide the effective variables of economic growth in Iran into 8 parts: 1) investment and physical capital, 2) labor power, 3) human capital, 4) Business, 5) credit and money variable, 6) inflation, 7) government, 8) political situation. For studying the effect of mentioned factors on economic growth, it is better to choose, and test a variable which match with the economic structure of Iran (Mirnaser and Tagiev, 2009).
Year: 2010
Publisher : Full Length Research
By : Mirnaser Mirbagheri
File Information: English Language/ 5 Page / size:108KB
Download: click
سال : 2010
ناشر : Full Length Research
کاری از : Mirnaser Mirbagheri
اطلاعات فایل : زبان انگلیسی / 5 صفحه / حجم : KB 108
لینک دانلود : روی همین لینک کلیک کنید
نقد و بررسیها
هنوز بررسیای ثبت نشده است.