توضیحات
ABSTRACT
Several recent efforts to estimate Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) focus on identifying quantities in the current climate which are skillful predictors of ECS yet can be constrained by observations. This study automates the search for observable predictors using data from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The primary focus of this paper is assessing statistical significance of the resulting predictive relationships. Failure to account for dependence between models, variables, locations, and seasons is shown to yield misleading results. A new technique for testing the field significance of data-mined correlations which avoids these problems is presented. Using this new approach, all 41,741 relationships we tested were found to be explainable by chance. This leads us to conclude that data mining is best used to identify potential relationships which are then validated or discarded using physically based hypothesis testing.
INTRODUCTION
Humans have always been fascinated with predicting the future. Making accurate predictions can be extremely difficult, but the payoffs for success can be huge. Predicting changes to Earth’s climate over the next hundred years and identifying how humans can influence this future is perhaps the most important prediction problem of our time. But as with most high stakes prediction exercises, understanding climate change is not easy. The main source of difficulty is that climate responds to complex interactions between weakly understood nonlinear processes. To accommodate this complexity, climate predictions are typically made with global climate models (GCMs) which distill our best understanding of climate processes into numerical models. Unfortunately,independently developed GCMs yield substantially different predictions of future climate
[Flato et al., 2013]. This disagreement provides a lower bound on our uncertainty about the magnitude of global warming. Additionally, spread in predictions by successive generations of GCMs does not seem to be decreasing [Manabe and Wetherald, 1967; Andrews et al., 2012; Bony et al., 2013].
Year : 2014
Publisher : Geophysical Research Letters
By : PeterM. Caldwell , Christopher S. Bretherton , Mark D. Zelinka , Stephen A. Klein,Benjamin D. Santer , and Benjamin M. Sanderson
File Information : English Language / 6 Page / Size : 220 KB
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سال : 2014
ناشر : Geophysical Research Letters
کاری از : PeterM. Caldwell , Christopher S. Bretherton , Mark D. Zelinka , Stephen A. Klein,Benjamin D. Santer , and Benjamin M. Sanderson
اطلاعات فایل : زبان فارسی / 6 صفحه / حجم : 220 KB
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