سبد خرید

ADAPTING BUILDINGS AND CITIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

The war against climate change pitches mankind against a global threat that vastly eclipses that of terrorism,1 in battles that have already claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of ordinary men and women from every continent. Climate change has led us into an era in which war and conflict are endemic,2 the widespread extinction of species approaches catastrophic proportions,3 andwhole regions and countries will be lost beneath the swelling seas and the expanding deserts of a rapidly warming world. And the really bad news is that ‘the world has only one generation, perhaps two, to save itself’.4 We all instinctively know, already, that the climate is changing, from the small noticed things like the unseasonable patterns of the flowering of plants, the falling of snow and the growing in strength of the wind and the rain. With this knowledge comes a growing apprehension of danger. Deep down, in quiet moments, we ask ourselves questions that a year or two ago were unthinkable: ● What will I do when the lights do go out? ● Will the house flood next year? ● Will my home get so hot this summer that I won’t be able to stay in it? ● How long could I survive in this building without air conditioning? ● Where will we go? ● Will we survive? This book is written to enable you, the reader, to get a clearer view of the ways in which the climate is changing and how these changes will affect your life tomorrow and the day after, in the buildings, settlements and regions in which you live and work.

Is climate change affecting the population dynamics of the endangered Pacific loggerhead sea turtle?

The loggerhead sea turtle is an endangered species exposed to many anthropogenic hazards in the Pacific. It is widely held that pelagic longline fisheries pose the major risk for Pacific loggerheads but the effects of other risk factors such as human-induced global climate change have rarely been considered. So we used generalised additive regression modelling and autoregressive-prewhitened cross-correlation analysis to explore whether regional ocean temperatures affect the long-term nesting population dynamics for the 2 Pacific loggerhead genetic stocks (Japan .Australia). We found that both Pacific stocks have been exposed to slowly increasing trends in mean annual sea surface temperature in their respective core regional foraging habitats over the past 50 years. We show that irrespective of whether a population was decreasing or increasing that there was an inverse correlation between nesting abundance and mean annual sea surface temperature in the core foraging region during the year prior to the summer nesting season. Cooler foraging habitat ocean temperatures are presumably associated with increased ocean productivity and prey abundance and consequently increased loggerhead breeding capacity. So warming regional ocean temperatures could lead to long-term decreased food supply and reduced nesting and recruitment unless Pacific loggerheads adapt by shifting their foraging habitat to cooler regions. So the gradual warming of the Pacific Ocean over the past 50 years is a major risk factor that must be considered in any meaningful diagnosis of the long-term declines apparent for some Pacific loggerhead nesting populations.

Analysis of performance losses of thermal power plants in Germany e A System Dynamics model approach using data from regional climate modelling

The majority of thermal power plants of more than 300 MW use river water for cooling purposes. Increasing water and air temperatures due to climate change can significantly impact the efficiency and the power production of these power plants. In this paper we analyse these impacts by modelling selected German thermal power plant units and their respective cooling systems through dynamic simulation taking into account legal thresholds for heat discharges to river water together with climate data projections (SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Possible output and efficiency reductions in the future (2011e2040 and 2041e2070) are quantified for thermal power plants with once-through (OTC) and losed-circuit (CCC) cooling systems under current legislative framework. The model validation showed that the chosen System Dynamics approach is appropriate to analyse impacts of climate change on thermal power units. The model results indicate lowest impacts for units with CCC systems: The mean trend for CCC for the A1B scenario (2011e2070) is expected to be 0.10 MW/a and 0.33 MW/a for an OTC system. On a daily basis, the power output of all considered OTC units is reduced down to 66.4% of the nominal capacity, for a single unit even down to 32%.

Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of small prairie wetlands

With increasing evidences of climate change in the prairie region, there is an urgent need to understand the future climate and the responses of small prairie wetlands. This study integrated two regional climate models (RCMs), two weather generators and a distributed hydrological model to examine uncertainties in hydrological responses to climate change in the Assiniboia watershed, Canada. Comparing to baseline conditions (1971–2000), annual water yield and evapotranspiration in the period of 2041–2070 were generally unchanged, while annual reservoir storage was generally reduced. However, projected hydrological regimes were less consistent at monthly level, particularly for March and July. Such uncertainties in simulated hydrological responses were derived from the implementations of different integrated downscaling methods, reflecting our imperfect knowledge of the future climate. We identified a warming temperature trend from climatic projections, but had less confidence in the future pattern of precipitation. Uncertainties in integrated downscaling were primarily derived from the choice of RCM, and were amplified through the incorporation of different weather generators. Results of any climate change study based on only one RCM and/or one weather generator should be interpreted with caution, and the ensemble framework should be advised to generate a comprehensive vision of the future climate. This study demonstrated that the incorporation of precipitation occurrence change contributed to a full translation of RCM outputs, but also introduced additional uncertainty. A balance is thus desired between the information loss and the additional uncertainty in order to effectively utilize RCM outputs.

Climate change, related hazards and human settlements

The assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) have demonstrated that the climate is changing and the future will see higher sea levels, more heat waves, intense storms and heavy precipitation events and extension of drought areas. These climate hazards are having impacts on human settlements causing major loss of life, social disruption and economic hardship. Recent literature has demonstrated that the problem is more rather than less critical. Linking of climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction is important and starting to happen although there are significant barriers. Less developed countries and the poorest people in all countries are those most at risk and usually with the least capacity to adapt and reduce risk. A new international research initiative, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk: addressing the challenge of natural and humaninduced environmental hazards (including climate change) has been established to meet the needs of providing an enhanced research base on which to develop and implement public policies.

Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

the ecosystem goods and services they provide to maritime tropical and oral reefs are critically important for subtropical nations . Yet reefs are in serious decline; an estimated 30% are already severely damaged, and close to 60% may be lost by 2030 . There are no pristine reefs left . Local successes at protecting coral reefs over the past 30 years have failed to reverse regionalscale declines, and global management of reefs must undergo a radical change in emphasis and implementation if it is to make a real difference. Here, we review current knowledge of the status of coral reefs, the human threats to them now and in the near future, and new directions for research in support of management of these vital natural resources. Until recently, the direct and indirect effects of overfishing and pollution from agriculture and land development have been the major drivers of massive and accelerating decreases in abundance of coral reef species, causing widespread changes in reef ecosystems over the past two centuries . With increased human populations and improved storage and transport systems, the scale of human impacts on reefs has grown exponentially. For example, markets for fishes and other natural resources have become global, supplying demand for reef resources far removed from their tropical sources

Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of small prairie wetlands

With increasing evidences of climate change in the prairie region, there is an urgent need to understand the future climate and the responses of small prairie wetlands. This study integrated two regional climate models (RCMs), two weather generators and a distributed hydrological model to examine uncertainties in hydrological responses to climate change in the Assiniboia watershed, Canada. Comparing to baseline conditions (1971–2000), annual water yield and evapotranspiration in the period of 2041–2070 were generally unchanged, while annual reservoir storage was generally reduced. However, projected hydrological regimes were less consistent at monthly level, particularly for March and July. Such uncertainties in simulated hydrological responses were derived from the implementations of different integrated downscaling methods, reflecting our imperfect knowledge of the future climate. We identified a warming temperature trend from climatic projections, but had less confidence in the future pattern of precipitation. Uncertainties in integrated downscaling were primarily derived from the choice of RCM, and were amplified through the incorporation of different weather generators. Results of any climate change study based on only one RCM and/or one weather generator should be interpreted with caution, and the ensemble framework should be advised to generate a comprehensive vision of the future climate. This study demonstrated that the incorporation of precipitation occurrence change contributed to a full translation of RCM outputs, but also introduced additional uncertainty. A balance is thus desired between the information loss and the additional uncertainty in order to effectively utilize RCM outputs

Climate change, related hazards and human settlements

The assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) have demonstrated that the climate is changing and the future will see higher sea levels, more heat waves, intense storms and heavy precipitation events and extension of drought areas. These climate hazards are having impacts on human settlements causing major loss of life, social disruption and economic hardship. Recent literature has demonstrated that the problem is more rather than less critical. Linking of climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction is important and starting to happen although there are significant barriers. Less developed countries and the poorest people in all countries are those most at risk and usually with the least capacity to adapt and reduce risk. A new international research initiative, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk: addressing the challenge of natural and humaninduced environmental hazards (including climate change) has been established to meet the needs of providing an enhanced research base on which to develop and implement public policies

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