Quantification of Uncertainties Associated with Gas Production[taliem.ir]

Quantification of Uncertainties Associated with Gas Production from Gas Hydrates in the Makran Offshore Area of Iran

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Recent seismic surveys detected thick layer of free gas underlying hydrate bearing sediments through observation of direct seismic attributes,  in the area of 27,000 km2, in the Makran offshore area of Iran. This potential energy source should be evaluated concerning production potential which is subject to very large uncertainties. Whereas, a meaningful development plan incorporating the associated uncertainty calls for large number of simulation runs, analytical models are useful tools for fast engineering calculations conducted at the  beginning of the life of reservoirs. In this paper, we investigate the class in which gas hydrates on the continental slope off Iran belong, as well as we propose the best production strategy which is well suited to the conditions of gas hydrates within the study area to maximize production. Then, we use Gerami and PooladiDarvish’s analytical model along with Monte Carlo simulation to capture the effect of uncertainty in hydrate and reservoir parameters on the performance of a prospect, located on the continental slope off Iran. The importance of employing analytical models for quantification of uncertainty, especially in the initial stages of development of gas hydrate reservoirs; also, is  discussed. The results of study indicate considerable contribution of hydrates in total produced gas, as well as high hydrate recovery. It reveals a significant economic advantage which guarantees gas production from gas hydrates in the Iranian part of the Oman Sea using conventional technology

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توضیحات

ABSTRACT
Recent seismic surveys detected thick layer of free gas underlying hydrate bearing sediments through observation of direct seismic attributes,  in the area of 27,000 km2, in the Makran offshore area of Iran. This potential energy source should be evaluated concerning production potential which is subject to very large uncertainties. Whereas, a meaningful development plan incorporating the associated uncertainty calls for large number of simulation runs, analytical models are useful tools for fast engineering calculations conducted at the  beginning of the life of reservoirs. In this paper, we investigate the class in which gas hydrates on the continental slope off Iran belong, as well as we propose the best production strategy which is well suited to the conditions of gas hydrates within the study area to maximize production. Then, we use Gerami and PooladiDarvish’s analytical model along with Monte Carlo simulation to capture the effect of uncertainty in hydrate and reservoir parameters on the performance of a prospect, located on the continental slope off Iran. The importance of employing analytical models for quantification of uncertainty, especially in the initial stages of development of gas hydrate reservoirs; also, is  discussed. The results of study indicate considerable contribution of hydrates in total produced gas, as well as high hydrate recovery. It reveals a significant economic advantage which guarantees gas production from gas hydrates in the Iranian part of the Oman Sea using conventional technology.

INTRODUCTION

Gas hydrates are solid crystalline compounds in which gas molecules (the guest) occupy the lattices of ice-like crystal structures composed of  water molecules (the host). Hydrates are formed under conditions of low temperature and high pressure and thus tend to form in two  geologic settings: (1) on land in permafrost regions, and (2) in the ocean sediments of continental margins . Over 230 gas hydrate deposits  have been found of which 97% have been located offshore and only 3% on land . Global estimates of the volume of hydratebound gases in  the ocean are very uncertain and vary from 0.2×1015  to 7600×1015 m3 . The consensus is that the global quantity of hydrocarbon gas  hydrates is vast  and they have significant role in the global organic carbon cycle . On the other hand, Depletion of fossil fuels which fulfills  ~80% of global energy requirement and the overwhelming demand of energy necessitates looking for an alternate source of energy.

Year: 2013

Publisher :  2nd National Iranian Conference on Gas Hydrate (NICGH)

By : Erfan Afazeli1 , Shahab Gerami

File Information: English Language/ 12 Page / size: 756 KB

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سال : 1392

ناشر : دومین کنفرانس ملی هیدرات گاز (NICGH)

کاری از : عرفان افضلی ، شهاب گرامی

اطلاعات فایل : زبان انگلیسی / 12 صفحه / حجم : KB 756

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