توضیحات
ABSTRACT
A great increase has been noticed in the number of road tunnels in Europe over the last decades. This can be attributed to the improvement of tunnel construction technology which has rendered tunnels a cost effective solution to connect steep mountainous regions and traverse urban areas. However, the increasing number of these infrastructures is a double-edged sword raising upfront an endogenous problem too, which is the severity of accidents that may occur in them. Accidents in road tunnels may lead to heavy consequences for the users, the infrastructure itself and the environment. Within this context the European Commission launched the Directive 2004/54/EC that sets basic requirements and suggests the implementation of a risk assessment in several cases apart from the measures imposed based on tunnel length and traffic volume. Since the EU Directive does not indicate the method for performing the risk assessment a wide range of methods have been proposed, most of them based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). Although the majority of current road tunnel QRAs assess physical aspects of the tunnel system and consider several hazards concerning the transportation of dangerous goods (DGs) through a tunnel, they do not take into account several organizational and human factors that can greatly affect the overall safety level of these critical infrastructures. To cope with this limitation this paper proposes a fuzzy logic system based on CREAM methodology in order to provide more sophisticated estimations of the tunnel operator’s performance in safety critical situations. This paper couples the results produced by the fuzzy logic system with the input parameters for a road tunnel QRA model (namely the OECD/PIARC DG-QRA Model). The results from the analysis reveal that the estimations of the tunnel operator’s performance produced by the fuzzy system significant affect the results of the road tunnel QRA. Therefore, it is deduced that the proposed fuzzy system can serve as a useful tool for the analyst to consider organizational and human factors so as to enhance the analysis and highlight the uncertainty related to human performance variability.
INTRODUCTION
Over the last two decades a great increase has been noticed in the number of road tunnels worldwide and all the indications are that this number will continue to increase in the coming years. However, the increasing number of these infrastructures is raising upfront an endogenous problem, which is the severity of accidents that may occur (Kirytopoulos et al., 2010). Especially when transportation of dangerous goods (DGs) is allowed through a road tunnel, the consequences of a possible accident take the form of a societal risk due to its potential extensive impact (Fabiano et al., 2005). Taking into account that the risk connected to dangerous goods (DGs) transport is comparable with the fixed plants one (Fabiano et al., 2002), tunnel authorities are requested to make risk-informed decisions as to whether such transport should be permitted in road tunnels (EU-Directive, 2004). In this perspective, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) models, such as the OECD/PIARC DG-QRA Model (INERIS, 2005), have been developed to assist decision making by providing objective estimates of risks. Nevertheless, current road tunnel QRAs are also subjected to many limitations (Kazaras et al., 2012).
Year: 2013
Publisher : CET
By : Konstantinos Kazaras , Myrto Konstandinidoub, Zoe Nivolianitoub,Konstantinos Kirytopoulos
File Information: English Language/ 6 Page / size: 313 KB
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سال : 2013
ناشر : CET
کاری از : Konstantinos Kazaras , Myrto Konstandinidoub, Zoe Nivolianitoub,Konstantinos Kirytopoulos
اطلاعات فایل : زبان انگلیسی / 6 صفحه / حجم : KB 313
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