توضیحات
ABSTRACT
Risk modeling and analysis is one of the most important stages in a project`s success. There are many approaches for risk assessment, and an investigation of existing methods helps in developing new models. This paper is an extensive literature survey in risk modeling and analytic methods with a main focus on fuzzy risk assessment.
INTRODUCTION
A “risk” is defined as the potential for complications and problems with respect to the completion of a project and the achievement of a project goal (Mark, et al., 2004). It is an uncertain future event or condition with an occurrence rate of greater than 0% but less than 100%, which has an effect on at least one of a project`s objectives (i.e., scope, schedule, cost, or quality, etc.). In addition, the impact or consequences of this future event must be unexpected or unplanned (Chia, 2006). It is well accepted that risk can be effectively managed to mitigate its’ adverse impacts on project objectives, even if it is inevitable in all project undertakings. Sources of risk include inherent uncertainties and issues relative to a company’s fluctuating profit margin, the competitive bidding process, weather changes, job site productivity, political situations, inflation, contractual rights, market competition, etc. (Karimiazari, et al., 2011). It is important for construction companies to face these uncertain risks by assessing their effects on a project`s objectives because the quantitative risk method allows for deciding which aspects of a project are more risky, planning for the potential sources of risk in each project, and managing each source during construction (Zayes, Amer and Pan, 2008). It is noteworthy that risk is distinguished from uncertainty. The one is measurable uncertainty; the other is immeasurable risk (Hillson, 2004; Olsson, 2007; Karimiazari, et al. , 2011). Therefore, managing risk is involved in identifying, assessing and prioritizing risks by monitoring, controlling, and applying managerial resources with a coordinated and economical effort so as to minimize the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events and so as to maximize the realization of project objectives (Douglas, 2009). Project risk management, which has been practiced since the mid-1980s, is one of the nine main knowledge areas of the Project Management Institute’s project management body of knowledge (Tuysz, et al., 2006). Effective risk management may lead a project manager to achieve several benefits such as identification of a favorable alternative course of action, increased confidence in achieving a project`s objectives, improved chances of success, reduced surprises, more precise estimates (through reduced uncertainty), reduced duplication of effort (through team awareness of risk control actions), etc. (Bannerman, 2008).
Year: 2012
Publisher : SLOVAK
By : Pejman Rezakhani
File Information: English Language/ 6 Page / size: 515 KB
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سال : 2012
ناشر : SLOVAK
کاری از : Pejman Rezakhani
اطلاعات فایل : زبان انگلیسی / 6 صفحه / حجم : KB 515
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