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American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation0 تومان
Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90%) when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8- m scenario). Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%). More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts.
Drought impacts on phloem transport0 تومان
Drought impacts on phloem transport have attracted attention only recently, despite the well-established, and empirically verified theories on drought impacts on water transport in plants in general. This is because studying phloem transport is challenging. Phloem tissue is relatively small and delicate, and it has often been assumed not to be impacted by drought, or having insignificant impact on plant function or survival compared to the xylem. New evidence, however, suggests that drought responses of the phloem might hold the key for predicting plant survival time during drought or revival capacity after drought. This review summarizes current theories and empirical evidence on how drought might impact phloem transport, and evaluates these findings in relation to plant survival during drought.
Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system0 تومان
Finland updated its Energy and Climate Strategy in late 2016 with the aim of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, increasing energy self-sufficiency and reducing greenhouse gas missions. Concurrently, the issue of generation adequacy has grown more topical, especially since the record-high demand peak in Finland in January 2016. This paper analyses the Finnish energy system in years 2020 and 2030 by using the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to model whether different energy policy scenarios result in a plausible generation inadequacy. Moreover, as the Nordic energy system is so heavily dependent on hydropower production, we model and analyse the impacts of a severe drought on the Finnish energy system. We simulate hydropower availability according to the weather of the worst drought of the last century (in 1939e1942) with Finnish Environment Institute’s Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System and we analyse the indirect impacts via reduced availability of electricity imports based on recent realised dry periods. Moreover, we analyse the environmental impacts of hydropower production during the drought and peak demand period and the impacts of climate change on generation adequacy in Finland. The results show that the scenarios of the new Energy and Climate Strategy result in an improved generation adequacy comparing to the current situation. However, a severe drought similar to that experienced in 1940s could cause a serious energy security threat.
Implementing climate change research at universities: Barriers, potential and actions0 تومان
Many universities around the world have been active centres of climate change research. However, there are a number of barriers to climate change research, stemming both from the nature of the research and the structure of institutions. This paper offers an overview of the barriers which hinder the handling of matters related to climate change at institutions of higher education (IHEs), and reports on an empirical study to investigate these barriers using a global survey of higher education institutions. It concludes by proposing some steps which could be followed with a view to making climate change more present and effective in university research and teaching. These include changing approaches to research, outreach and teaching to better support action on climate change.
Mining and climate change: A review and framework for analysis0 تومان
In this paper, we demonstrate that climate change is critically important for the current and future status of mining activity and its impacts on surrounding communities and environments. We illustrate this through examples from Latin America, including a spatial analysis of the intersection between rojected climate changes and existing mining operations. We then elaborate a framework to identify and investigate the relationships among mining, climate change, and public and private responses to them. The framework also notes the importance of political economy and learning processes to the forms taken by these relationships. Our paper then reports on a focused review of peer-reviewed publications that aims to identify the extent to which a core research literature on mining and climate change currently exists. We show that this literature is still very limited, but that the analysis that does exist can be encapsulated by the main elements of our framework. This enables us to describe the current structure of both peer-reviewed and policy research on mining and climate change, and identify areas for future research. In particular, we note the chronic absence of research on this relationship for the vast majority of developing countries, where some of the most serious vulnerabilities to climate change exist.
ADAPTING BUILDINGS AND CITIES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE0 تومان
The war against climate change pitches mankind against a global threat that vastly eclipses that of terrorism,1 in battles that have already claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of ordinary men and women from every continent. Climate change has led us into an era in which war and conflict are endemic,2 the widespread extinction of species approaches catastrophic proportions,3 andwhole regions and countries will be lost beneath the swelling seas and the expanding deserts of a rapidly warming world. And the really bad news is that ‘the world has only one generation, perhaps two, to save itself’.4 We all instinctively know, already, that the climate is changing, from the small noticed things like the unseasonable patterns of the flowering of plants, the falling of snow and the growing in strength of the wind and the rain. With this knowledge comes a growing apprehension of danger. Deep down, in quiet moments, we ask ourselves questions that a year or two ago were unthinkable: ● What will I do when the lights do go out? ● Will the house flood next year? ● Will my home get so hot this summer that I won’t be able to stay in it? ● How long could I survive in this building without air conditioning? ● Where will we go? ● Will we survive? This book is written to enable you, the reader, to get a clearer view of the ways in which the climate is changing and how these changes will affect your life tomorrow and the day after, in the buildings, settlements and regions in which you live and work.
Analysis of performance losses of thermal power plants in Germany e A System Dynamics model approach using data from regional climate modelling0 تومان
The majority of thermal power plants of more than 300 MW use river water for cooling purposes. Increasing water and air temperatures due to climate change can significantly impact the efficiency and the power production of these power plants. In this paper we analyse these impacts by modelling selected German thermal power plant units and their respective cooling systems through dynamic simulation taking into account legal thresholds for heat discharges to river water together with climate data projections (SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Possible output and efficiency reductions in the future (2011e2040 and 2041e2070) are quantified for thermal power plants with once-through (OTC) and losed-circuit (CCC) cooling systems under current legislative framework. The model validation showed that the chosen System Dynamics approach is appropriate to analyse impacts of climate change on thermal power units. The model results indicate lowest impacts for units with CCC systems: The mean trend for CCC for the A1B scenario (2011e2070) is expected to be 0.10 MW/a and 0.33 MW/a for an OTC system. On a daily basis, the power output of all considered OTC units is reduced down to 66.4% of the nominal capacity, for a single unit even down to 32%.
Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs0 تومان
the ecosystem goods and services they provide to maritime tropical and oral reefs are critically important for subtropical nations . Yet reefs are in serious decline; an estimated 30% are already severely damaged, and close to 60% may be lost by 2030 . There are no pristine reefs left . Local successes at protecting coral reefs over the past 30 years have failed to reverse regionalscale declines, and global management of reefs must undergo a radical change in emphasis and implementation if it is to make a real difference. Here, we review current knowledge of the status of coral reefs, the human threats to them now and in the near future, and new directions for research in support of management of these vital natural resources. Until recently, the direct and indirect effects of overfishing and pollution from agriculture and land development have been the major drivers of massive and accelerating decreases in abundance of coral reef species, causing widespread changes in reef ecosystems over the past two centuries . With increased human populations and improved storage and transport systems, the scale of human impacts on reefs has grown exponentially. For example, markets for fishes and other natural resources have become global, supplying demand for reef resources far removed from their tropical sources .
Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs0 تومان
The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.
Climate change, related hazards and human settlements0 تومان
The assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) have demonstrated that the climate is changing and the future will see higher sea levels, more heat waves, intense storms and heavy precipitation events and extension of drought areas. These climate hazards are having impacts on human settlements causing major loss of life, social disruption and economic hardship. Recent literature has demonstrated that the problem is more rather than less critical. Linking of climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction is important and starting to happen although there are significant barriers. Less developed countries and the poorest people in all countries are those most at risk and usually with the least capacity to adapt and reduce risk. A new international research initiative, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk: addressing the challenge of natural and humaninduced environmental hazards (including climate change) has been established to meet the needs of providing an enhanced research base on which to develop and implement public policies .
Is climate change affecting the population dynamics of the endangered Pacific loggerhead sea turtle?0 تومان
The loggerhead sea turtle is an endangered species exposed to many anthropogenic hazards in the Pacific. It is widely held that pelagic longline fisheries pose the major risk for Pacific loggerheads but the effects of other risk factors such as human-induced global climate change have rarely been considered. So we used generalised additive regression modelling and autoregressive-prewhitened cross-correlation analysis to explore whether regional ocean temperatures affect the long-term nesting population dynamics for the 2 Pacific loggerhead genetic stocks (Japan .Australia). We found that both Pacific stocks have been exposed to slowly increasing trends in mean annual sea surface temperature in their respective core regional foraging habitats over the past 50 years. We show that irrespective of whether a population was decreasing or increasing that there was an inverse correlation between nesting abundance and mean annual sea surface temperature in the core foraging region during the year prior to the summer nesting season. Cooler foraging habitat ocean temperatures are presumably associated with increased ocean productivity and prey abundance and consequently increased loggerhead breeding capacity. So warming regional ocean temperatures could lead to long-term decreased food supply and reduced nesting and recruitment unless Pacific loggerheads adapt by shifting their foraging habitat to cooler regions. So the gradual warming of the Pacific Ocean over the past 50 years is a major risk factor that must be considered in any meaningful diagnosis of the long-term declines apparent for some Pacific loggerhead nesting populations.
Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of small prairie wetlands0 تومان
With increasing evidences of climate change in the prairie region, there is an urgent need to understand the future climate and the responses of small prairie wetlands. This study integrated two regional climate models (RCMs), two weather generators and a distributed hydrological model to examine uncertainties in hydrological responses to climate change in the Assiniboia watershed, Canada. Comparing to baseline conditions (1971–2000), annual water yield and evapotranspiration in the period of 2041–2070 were generally unchanged, while annual reservoir storage was generally reduced. However, projected hydrological regimes were less consistent at monthly level, particularly for March and July. Such uncertainties in simulated hydrological responses were derived from the implementations of different integrated downscaling methods, reflecting our imperfect knowledge of the future climate. We identified a warming temperature trend from climatic projections, but had less confidence in the future pattern of precipitation. Uncertainties in integrated downscaling were primarily derived from the choice of RCM, and were amplified through the incorporation of different weather generators. Results of any climate change study based on only one RCM and/or one weather generator should be interpreted with caution, and the ensemble framework should be advised to generate a comprehensive vision of the future climate. This study demonstrated that the incorporation of precipitation occurrence change contributed to a full translation of RCM outputs, but also introduced additional uncertainty. A balance is thus desired between the information loss and the additional uncertainty in order to effectively utilize RCM outputs .
Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of small prairie wetlands0 تومان
With increasing evidences of climate change in the prairie region, there is an urgent need to understand the future climate and the responses of small prairie wetlands. This study integrated two regional climate models (RCMs), two weather generators and a distributed hydrological model to examine uncertainties in hydrological responses to climate change in the Assiniboia watershed, Canada. Comparing to baseline conditions (1971–2000), annual water yield and evapotranspiration in the period of 2041–2070 were generally unchanged, while annual reservoir storage was generally reduced. However, projected hydrological regimes were less consistent at monthly level, particularly for March and July. Such uncertainties in simulated hydrological responses were derived from the implementations of different integrated downscaling methods, reflecting our imperfect knowledge of the future climate. We identified a warming temperature trend from climatic projections, but had less confidence in the future pattern of precipitation. Uncertainties in integrated downscaling were primarily derived from the choice of RCM, and were amplified through the incorporation of different weather generators. Results of any climate change study based on only one RCM and/or one weather generator should be interpreted with caution, and the ensemble framework should be advised to generate a comprehensive vision of the future climate. This study demonstrated that the incorporation of precipitation occurrence change contributed to a full translation of RCM outputs, but also introduced additional uncertainty. A balance is thus desired between the information loss and the additional uncertainty in order to effectively utilize RCM outputs.