Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble0 تومان
Exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. In the aftermath of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out early 2014, the Russian ruble lost 50% of its value against the US dollar. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on natural resource exports, another factor behind the deterioration could be the sharp decline in oil prices starting in summer 2014. Using high-frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on forces underlying the ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.
Corporate Political Connections, Agency Costs and Audit Quality0 تومان
The effect of political connections on business organisations has received considerable research attention worldwide, consistent with an increase in politically connected executives and directors running listed companies in both developed and emerging economies (see for example, Ding et al., 2015). Politically connected executives and directors are typically perceived to be powerful because they can exploit a variety of advantages by using their links with politicians. They can also use their political power to strengthen their positions and influence firm outcomes. Prior studies examine the effect of political connections on firm value (Fisman, 2001), access to finances (Claessens et al., 2008), tax rates (Adhikari et al., 2006), cost of debt and equity capital (Bliss and Gul, 2012; Boubakri et al., 2012), and financial reporting quality (Chaney et al., 2011).
GUEST EDITORIAL Introduction: militarization and international business0 تومان
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce a special issue which looks into how militarization can be seen as an entity from which international business, management and organization can or cannot glean potentially useful lessons. Design/methodology/approach – Five papers have been used to give a suitable basis for the reconceptualisation and recontextualisation of the military and militarization in relation to international business. Findings – Several key tasks are achieved in rephrasing the issues of militarization in relation to international business. A wide national and cultural span is covered. Originality/value – In developing and assembling this collection of papers claim cannot be laid to have answered issues on militarization, ground has been laid and reference points provided for a much needed wider critical debate.
IRAN AND THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION: IS IT POSSIBLE FOR IRAN TO BECOME FULL MEMBER OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION UNDER PRESSURE OF NUCLEAR ISSUE?0 تومان
In this article, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s willingness to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) under the shadow of Iran’s nuclear tension with the US is evaluated with a specialfocus on the conditions, which prepares the grounds for the establishment of the Shanghai Five in 1996, its transformation to the SCO in 2001 and Post Cold War developments and the United States’ presence in the region after the 9/11 terror attacks to the US. Iran’s relations with the six SCO members is also given as an additional information in order to provide the reader with a general perspective about the possibility of Iran’s prospective membership to the SCO and to analyze the answers to these questions: Is it possible for Iran, which is under great pressure of the US due to its nuclear program, to become a full member to the SCO in the near future? If it is possible, what would be the repercussions in the US?
liBeralization, migration, and development: the mexico-u S relationShip0 تومان
Migration from Mexico to the United States has been increased by liberalization of the Mexican economy. Proponents of liberalization had maintained that it would reduce migration; indeed, they used this argument along with anti-immigrant sentiment as one basis on which to sell the North American Free Trade Agreement to the U.S. public. The anti-immigration demagogy was not only offensive in sentiment but also wrong in substance. Various impacts of liberalization have been causal factors moving people northward and maintaining the high rate of migration. This reality should force a reassessment of policy in the United States. A policy that accepted the reality of continuing migration and integrated the immigrants into the labor force with full rights could have widespread benefts.
Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran Global Eﬀects and Strategic Responses0 تومان
This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the eﬀects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefts the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran’s crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefts close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better oﬀ and net oil exporters worse oﬀ.
The economic effects of a counterinsurgency policy in India: A synthetic control analysis0 تومان
Using the synthetic control method, we analyze the economic effects of a unique counterinsurgency response to the Naxalite insurgency in India. Of all the states affected by Naxalite violence, only one state, Andhra Pradesh, raised a specially trained and equipped police force in 1989 known as the Greyhounds, dedicated to combating the Naxalite insurgency. Compared to a synthetic control region constructed from states affected by Naxalite violence that did not raise a similar police force, we find that the per capita NSDP of Andhra Pradesh increased significantly over the period 1989–2000. Further, we find that the effects on the manufacturing sector are particularly strong. Placebo tests indicate that these results are credible and various difference-in-difference specifications using state and industry level panel data further corroborate these findings.
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