توضیحات
ABSTRACT
Countries that share rivers have a higher risk of military disputes, even when controlling for a range of standard variables from studies of interstate conflict. A study incorporating the length of the land boundary showed that the shared river variable is not just a proxy for a higher degree of interaction opportunity. A weakness of earlier work is that the existing shared rivers data do not distinguish properly between dyads where the rivers run mainly across the boundary and dyads where the shared river runs along the boundary. Dyads with rivers running across the boundary would be expected to give rise to resource scarcity-related conflict, while in dyads where the river forms the boundary conflict may arise because river boundaries are fluid and fuzzy. Using a new dataset on shared water basins and two measures of water scarcity, we test for the relevance of these
INTRODUCTION
Most conflicts are over some type of resource perceived as scarce, at least when territory is counted as a resource (Huth, 1996; Vasquez, 1993). With the decline of ideological conflict after the end of the Cold War some scholars, like Klare (2001a, 2001b), have argued that competition for access to ‘vital’ resources increasingly drives international relations. According to Klare, the danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow ‘inevitably’. By 2050, the increased demand for water could produce ‘intense competition for this essential substance in all but a few well-watered areas of the planet’ (Klare, 2001a, p. 57). In the first large n study of water and interstate conflict (Toset, Gleditsch, & Hegre, 2000), we showed that sharing a river increases the probability of a militarized interstate dispute in a pair of countries (a dyad) over and above mere contiguity. We also found water scarcity to be associated with conflict, particularly when a river is shared across rather than along a border. Furlong, Gleditsch, and Hegre (2006) investigated the possibility that these findings might be spurious. Countries with long common boundaries are more likely to have a shared river and also to have more conflict, as argued theoretically by Wesley (1962, p. 388) and empirically by H. Starr (2002). Using a new dataset on international boundaries (Furlong & Gleditsch, 2003), however, we found that the relationship between shared rivers and conflict was not spurious with respect to boundary length.
Year: 2006
Publisher : ELSEVIER
By : Nils Petter Gleditsch , Kathryn Furlong , Ha vard Hegre a,Bethany Lacina , Taylor Owen
File Information: English Language/ 22 Page / size: 301 KB
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سال : 2006
ناشر : ELSEVIER
کاری از : Nils Petter Gleditsch , Kathryn Furlong , Ha vard Hegre a,Bethany Lacina , Taylor Owen
اطلاعات فایل : زبان انگلیسی / 22 صفحه / حجم : KB 301
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